Cambridge University Press
9780521764414 - Challenges in Intelligence Analysis - Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present - By Timothy Walton
Frontmatter/Prelims

Challenges in Intelligence Analysis

In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. This book provides a detailed and balanced explanation of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis.

Timothy Walton is an adjunct professor of intelligence studies at Mercyhurst College and is on the roster of subject matter experts at Omnis Inc., an intelligence training consulting firm. The author of The Spanish Treasure Fleets, he served in the U.S. Navy and spent twenty-four years as an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Challenges in Intelligence Analysis

Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present

Timothy Walton

Institute for Intelligence Studies, Mercyhurst College, Washington, DC

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521132657

© Timothy Walton 2010

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2010

Printed in the United States of America

A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data

Walton, Timothy R., 1948–
Challenges in intelligence analysis : lessons from 1300 BCE to the present /
Timothy Walton.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-521-76441-4 (hardback) – ISBN 978-0-521-13265-7 (pbk.)
1. Intelligence service – History. 2. Intelligence service – Methodology. 3. Military
intelligence – History. 4. Espionage – History. 5. Business intelligence – History.
I. Title.
JF1525.I6.W39 2010
355.3′43209–dc22 2010028670

ISBN 978-0-521-76441-4 Hardback
ISBN 978-0-521-13265-7 Paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

Contents

Figures
 ix
Preface
 xi
Part I:   Problems and Possible Solutions
 1
1         The Main Challenges in Intelligence Analysis
 3
2         Attempts to Deal with the Challenges
 9
Part II:  From the Ancient World to Modern Times
 29
3         Moses Sends Spies into Canaan
 31
4         The Athenian Campaign on Sicily
 35
5         Caesar's Campaigns in Gaul
 39
6         Sun Tzu
 45
7         The Spanish Armada
 49
8         George Washington
 55
Part III: The First Half of the Twentieth Century
 61
9         Wilson and the Paris Peace Conference
 63
10        Estimating the Strength of the Luftwaffe in the 1930s
69
11        Stalin Assesses Hitler
 79
12        Pearl Harbor
 89
13        Targets for the Allied Bombers
 99
14        The German V-Weapon
 105
Part IV:  The Cold War
 113
15        Atomic Bomb Spies
 115
16        Outbreak of the Korean War
 123
17        Counterinsurgency in Malaya
 131
18        Soviet Strategic Weapons
 137
19        Cuban Missile Crisis
 143
20        Aspects of the Vietnam War
 149
21        The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
 155
22        Finding Spies: Ames and Hanssen
 161
23        Breakup of the USSR
 167
Part V:   Other International Security Issues, Other Places
 173
24        The Yom Kippur War
 175
25        The Fall of the Shah
 183
26        Nuclear Weapons Tests
 189
27        A. Q. Khan
 195
28        Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction
 201
29        Violence in Iraq
 209
Part VI:  Domestic Law Enforcement
 217
30        The Lindbergh Kidnapping
 219
31        Breaking the Mafia
 225
32        Airline Tragedies: Pan Am Flight 103 and TWA Flight 800
 229
33        Aum Shinrikyo
 233
34        Colombian Drug Cartels
 239
35        Wen Ho Lee
 247
36        9/11
 251
37        Anthrax Attacks
 259
38        DC Snipers
 265
Part VII: Medicine and Business
 269
39        Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
 271
40        New Coke
 277
41        Japan in the U.S. Car Market
 281
Further Recommended Reading
 285
Index
 287

Figures

1.          Timeline
 11
2.          Flow chart
 12
3.          SWOT matrix
 14
4.          Basic elements of a link chart
 16
5.          Template for an ACH matrix
 19
6.          Stoplight matrix
 21
7.          Scenarios quadrant
 24
8.          Decision tree
 25
9.          The ancient Mediterranean
 30
10.         Washington's intelligence spreadsheet
 58
11.         Europe in 1939
 78
12.         The Pacific in World War II
 88
13.         Wreckage of the USS Arizona, Pearl Harbor, December 1941
96
14.         American B-17 bombers over Germany in 1943
 101
15.         Atomic bomb explosion
 114
16.         The Korean peninsula
 122
17.         Malaya
 130
18.         The USSR
 136
19.         Range of the Soviet missiles in the Cuban Missile Crisis
 142
20.         Indochina
 148
21.         Afghanistan
 154
22.         Soviet forces in Kabul, Afghanistan
 159
23.         The Middle East
 174
24.         Iran
 182
25.         Ethnic groups in Iraq
 208
26.         The Caribbean Sea
 238
27.         The August 6, 2001, President's Daily Brief Item on al-Qaeda
 254
28.         DC sniper attacks
 264


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