Cambridge University Press
9780521859851 - History of the Meteorological Office - By Malcolm Walker
Frontmatter/Prelims

History of the Meteorological Office

Malcolm Walker tells the story of the UK's national meteorological service – now known simply as the Met Office – from its formation in 1854 with a staff of four and a budget of a few thousand pounds, to its present position as a scientific and technological institution of national and international importance with a staff of nearly 2000 and a turnover of nearly 200 million pounds per year. The Met Office has long been at the forefront of research into atmospheric science and technology and is second to none in providing weather services to the general public and a wide range of customers around the world. The history of the Met Office is therefore largely a history of the development of international weather prediction research in general.

Formed as the Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade with a specifically maritime purpose, the Met Office is now an Executive Agency and Trading Fund responsible to the UK government's Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and serves not only the shipping industry but also many other groups of users. It is at the forefront of pure and applied research in meteorology and related sciences and, moreover, cooperates and interacts with the international meteorological community at administrative, operational and research levels. In addition to being a premier forecasting bureau, it is at the forefront of the modelling of climate change in the modern era.

This volume will be of great interest to meteorologists, atmospheric scientists and historians of science, as well as amateur meteorologists and anyone interested generally in weather prediction.

Malcolm Walker was an academic at Cardiff University from 1967 to 1998, first as a Lecturer, then, from 1983, as Senior Lecturer and, from 1996, as Deputy Head of the Department of Maritime Studies and International Transport. He was Education Resources Manager of the Royal Meteorological Society from 1998 to 2007. He is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and a Member of the American Meteorological Society. He co-authored The Ocean-Atmosphere System (1977), with A.H. Perry. He chaired the Royal Meteorological Society's History Group from 1989 to 1999 and again from 2007 to the present. He was awarded the Group's Jehuda Neumann Memorial Prize in 2001 and the Royal Meteorological Society's Outstanding Service Award in 2007. Since 1980 he has had a strong scholarly interest in the history of ideas in meteorology and physical oceanography and the people behind these ideas. He has published numerous articles and lectured many times on this subject.


History of the Meteorological Office

Malcolm Walker


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© Malcolm Walker 2012

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First published 2012
Printed in the United States of America

A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data

Walker, J. M. (John Malcolm), 1942–
History of the Meteorological Office / J. M. Walker.
p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-521-85985-1 (hardback)
1. Great Britain. Meteorological Office – History.2. Meteorology –
Great Britain – History.I. Title.
QC989.G69.W352012
551.50941–dc232011025094

ISBN 978-0-521-85985-1 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.


Contents

List of Illustrations
ix
Foreword by Lord Hunt of Chesterton, FRS
xv
Additional Commentary by Dr David N Axford, CEng, FIET, CMet(ret), FRMetS
xxi
Acknowledgements
xxiii
Abbreviations
xxv
1       Seeds Are Sown
1
Meteorology in Ancient Times
2
The Dawn of Modern Meteorology
3
The Origins and Growth of Marine Meteorology
6
The Emergence of Organized Meteorology
8
Early Attempts to Model Weather Systems
11
Progress through Organized Science
13
Networks of Observers Develop
17
The Outcome of a Conference
19
2       Statistics and Storms
23
A New Government Department Is Born
24
The Great Desiderata of Meteorology
30
The Formation of the Scottish Meteorological Society
32
Progress at the Meteorological Department
34
Operational Storm Warnings
38
Forecasts for the General Public
44
Departmental Growth
45
Criticism and Controversy
47
3       Inquiry and Criticism
55
A New Beginning
55
The Galton Report
60
Reactions and Consequences
65
FitzRoy’s Reputation
68
FitzRoy’s Successor
71
Under New Management
73
4       The Fight over Forecasts
78
The Campaign in Parliament to Restore Storm Warnings
78
Efforts in the Press to Restore Storm Warnings
83
Resumption of Storm Warnings
85
A New Home for the Meteorological Office
88
An Important New Publication
89
Weather Charts for the Public
90
Owen Rowland – A Notable Amateur Weather Forecaster
92
Trans-Atlantic Weather Warnings
94
A Mid-Atlantic Observatory – An Idea before Its Time
98
Resumption of Weather Forecasts for the Public
100
5       Squalls and Settled Spells
102
Changes in the Role of Kew Observatory
102
An Unsuccessful Proposal from the Astronomer-Royal
104
London and Scotland Disagree
106
The Birth of the International Meteorological Organization
109
Another Change in Management of the Meteorological Office
112
Disappointment and Discontent
116
Science at Last
119
The Value of Weather Forecasts
122
Advances in Theoretical Meteorology
124
6       The Emergence of Science
126
A Scientist with Vision
127
Further Developments at Kew Observatory
133
Glimpses of Everyday Life
136
A Fresh Approach
142
A New Form of Communication
147
Shaw’s Early Impact on the Meteorological Office
149
7       A Decade of Change
151
Yet Another Inquiry
151
Yet Another Reorganization
155
A New Home for the Meteorological Office
157
Advances in Research and Education
164
The Budget of the Meteorological Office
169
A New Meteorological Branch in Scotland
173
Communications and Standardization
177
The Continuing Impact of Shaw
178
8       The Great War
180
The Emergence of Aeronautics
180
The Outcome of a Disaster
183
War Breaks Out
185
A Professor of Meteorology at South Farnborough
188
Wartime Field Units of the Meteorological Office
191
Further Wartime Work of Charles Cave
197
Serving the Needs of Wartime
199
Whither the Meteorological Office?
202
The Prospect of a National Meteorological Institute
209
The Meteorological Office Transfers to the Air Ministry
212
Miscellaneous Developments
218
9       The Inter-War Period
223
Meteorological Services Are Resumed
224
Scottish Meteorological Society Difficulties
229
New Directions for Sir Napier Shaw
230
A New Director
233
Under New Management
236
Steady Progress
242
The Rise and Fall of Airships
249
Meteorology from the Air
253
Meteorological Education and Training
256
Further Notable Developments
261
10      The Clouds of War
264
The Pre-War Years
266
War Breaks Out
271
Military Operations during the War
276
Operational Requirements at Home
284
Internal Reorganization
288
Wartime Experiences and Reminiscences
290
Forecasts and Observations
294
Peace Returns
303
11      Aftermath of War to Forecasting by Numbers
307
Further Reorganization of the Meteorological Office
307
Revival of the International Meteorological Organization
311
Research Developments
313
Developments in Weather Forecasting
315
Floating Meteorological Observatories
321
Meteorological Services for the Public
325
Severe Weather Events
328
A New Director
331
The Brabazon Report
334
Progress at Home and Abroad
340
The Office’s First Electronic Computer
347
The Move to Bracknell
350
12      Global Meteorology
354
Fahrenheit or Celsius
354
Weather Forecasting Developments
356
A New Director-General
358
Research Developments in the 1960s
365
New Meteorological Services
369
International Developments
378
An Exciting New Era
384
Automatic Systems Develop
387
Developments at Reading
394
End of an Era
397
13      Winds of Change
401
A Host of Environmental Concerns
403
A New Director-General
409
Progress and Storms
415
More Independence for the Met Office
419
Further Important Developments for the Met Office
423
A New Chief Executive
427
Further Changes of Direction for the Met Office
434
Uncertain Times
441
Controversy Continues
447
Epilogue
451
Postscript
453
Index
455

Illustrations

2.1         Robert FitzRoy, Meteorological Statist to the Board of Trade, the first Director of the Meteorological Office.
25
2.2         The first home of the Meteorological Office at 1 and 2 Parliament Street, London, with wind vane and rain gauge on the roof.
27
2.3         Wind star, from FitzRoy's Weather Book (1863), showing the directions and strengths of the winds which occurred most frequently between latitudes 20°S and 30°S and longitudes 30°W and 40°W.
30
2.4         Ship's meteorological register (logbook), April 1857.
34
2.5         FitzRoy display in the National Meteorological Library, showing barometers and model of HMS Beagle.
37
2.6         Storm-warning signals, from FitzRoy's Weather Book (1863), showing cones and drum and the night signals.
43
2.7         The pendule de voyage presented to FitzRoy by the French government in 1864.
53
3.1         The upper picture, from FitzRoy's Weather Book (1863), shows his analysis of the 1859 Royal Charter storm, with flows of cold air from the north and flows of warm air from the south. The lower picture is a meteorological satellite image showing cloud patterns over the British Isles at 11:50 GMT on 2 April 2006. The resemblance between the patterns is striking.
70
3.2         Robert Henry Scott.
71
4.1         South cone, St Ann's Head, Pembrokeshire, 17 September 1965.
87
4.2         The weather chart for 31 March 1875 published in The Times on 1 April 1875. The dotted lines indicate the gradations of barometric pressure. Variations of temperature are marked by figures, state of the sea and sky by descriptive words, and direction of the wind by arrows – barbed and feathered according to its force.
91
5.1         Second-order weather station at The Hollies, Hastings, 12 September 1884.
111
5.2         Ben Nevis Observatory, 1890.
121
6.1         William Napier Shaw.
128
6.2         The Meteorological Office headquarters at 63 Victoria Street, London, in the late nineteenth century, showing the display of notice-boards on the first-floor balcony and the pianoforte maker's shop on the ground floor.
137
6.3         Afternoon tea in the Forecast Room of the Meteorological Office at 63 Victoria Street, c. 1904. From left to right: R Sargeant, F Snell, W Hayes.
139
6.4         W H Dines and companion launch a box kite in Crinan Bay, Scotland, 1902.
145
7.1         The headquarters of the Meteorological Office at Exhibition Road, London, 1910.
163
7.2         Ernest Gold.
168
7.3         Rudolf Gustav Karl Lempfert.
168
7.4         Meteorological Office annual expenditure in £ from the year ending 31 March 1900 to the year ending 31 March 1939.
170
7.5         The distinctive KO mark used on instruments tested at Kew Observatory.
172
8.1         Henry George Lyons.
193
8.2         Ernest Gold's weather diary, France, 24 December 1916.
196
8.3         Wartime humour. Meteorological Office Forecast Division Christmas Card, 1916, with staff identified by their initials added in pencil, including RGKL (Lempfert), JSD (Dines), FJB (Brodie), HH (Harries), RS (Sargeant), WH (Hayes) and ‘Jestico’ (C F J Jestico).
197
8.4         Meteorological Office staff numbers, 1900–1939.
200
8.5         Lewis Fry Richardson.
219
9.1         George Clarke Simpson.
234
9.2         Shipping forecast sea areas and coastal stations, 1924.
244
9.3         Punching Hollerith cards.
247
9.4         Making an Airmet broadcast in the 1930s.
255
9.5         Chart in the Daily Weather Report showing fronts, 2 March 1933, 07:00 GMT. Fronts were first shown on charts the previous day. Warm fronts are shown as dashed lines, cold fronts as lines of open circles, occluded fronts as alternate dashes and open circles.
260
10.1        Nelson King Johnson.
265
10.2        Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder. The glass sphere focuses the sun's rays onto a graduated card, thus burning a track on it.
270
10.3        Group Captain James Stagg.
280
10.4        Stagg's diary for Sunday 4 June 1944, in which he said that he did not go to bed on the Saturday night but wrote up notes for a conference at 3 a.m. He also noted that “it began to appear that there might be a temporary fair interlude Monday night” and that the assault was “provisionally put in again for 6.30 Tuesday morning”.
281
10.5        The weather map for 13:00 GMT on D-Day, 6 June 1944. Note that observations were available from Ireland and other neutral countries and from the Atlantic, Germany, Norway and other parts of occupied Europe.
282
10.6        Appreciative letter from E G Bilham, 6 June 1944, to staff of the Women's Auxiliary Air Force who provided duplicate charts for Douglas and Petterssen. Bilham was Assistant Director (Forecasting).
283
10.7        Meteorological reconnaissance flights, September 1944.
301
11.1        Meteorological Office staff numbers 1947–2010. The figure in August 1945 was 6760.
309
11.2        Weather briefing at Dunstable for senior scientists, c. 1946.
310
11.3        C K M Douglas, the greatest British synoptic weather forecaster of all time, early 1950s.
320
11.4        C K M Douglas inspecting work in the Central Forecasting Office at Dunstable, late 1940s.
321
11.5        The teleprinter room at Dunstable.
322
11.6        Oliver Graham Sutton.
333
11.7        Meteorological Office turnover in millions of £ from the year ending 31 March 1950 to the year ending 31 March 2010.
337
11.8        Doppler radar matrix display showing a vertical profile of echoes from precipitation over Worcestershire whilst continuous rain was falling. The display shows raindrops falling with a speed of between 5 and 8 metres per second below a height of about 2.5 kilometres and snowflakes falling with a speed of between 1 and 2 metres per second above a narrow band which contained a mixture of rain drops and melting snowflakes.
342
11.9        London Weather Centre window display of current charts and other meteorological information, Kingsway, 1959.
344
11.10       Making a weather observation on the Air Ministry roof, Kingsway, London, 1959.
345
11.11       Checking a rain-gauge on the Air Ministry roof, Kingsway, London 1959. Weather radar in the background.
345
11.12       Launch of radiosonde at Lerwick Observatory, 1963.
346
11.13       Operating the ‘Meteor’ computer at Dunstable.
349
11.14       The new headquarters of the Meteorological Office at Bracknell, 1962.
351
11.15       Sir Graham Sutton shows Her Majesty the Queen a component of a Skylark rocket at the Bracknell headquarters of the Meteorological Office, 25 June 1962.
352
12.1        Basil John Mason.
361
12.2        Dr Mason speaking at the Meteorological Office's first-ever press conference, 2 November 1965.
361
12.3        Computer print-out (‘zebra chart’), 200 mb analysis for much of the northern hemisphere, 5 October 1966, 12:00 GMT.
362
12.4        The C-130 Hercules aircraft nicknamed ‘Snoopy’, showing its long nose boom and radar pod.
368
12.5        BBC TV weather presentation by Norman Ellis, early 1960s.
376
12.6        Plotting weather charts in the Central Forecasting Office at Bracknell, 1965.
377
12.7        The headquarters of the Meteorological Office at Bracknell after completion of the Richardson Wing.
387
12.8        Prime Minister Edward Heath opens the Richardson Wing of the Meteorological Office at Bracknell, 6 October 1972, watched by Dr Mason.
388
12.9        Servicing a moored meteorological buoy.
390
12.10       Kew Observatory in the 1960s.
398
13.1        John Theodore Houghton.
411
13.2        The Prime Minister, Mrs Margaret Thatcher, inspecting a poster display at the Hadley Centre after she had opened the Centre, 25 May 1990.
425
13.3        Julian Charles Roland Hunt.
428
13.4        Professor Hunt presenting a barograph to Captain M Bechley, September 1995, continuing a tradition which began in the days of FitzRoy of rewarding mariners whose work at sea for the Meteorological Office was exemplary.
433
13.5        Peter David Ewins.
435
13.6        Met Office logos.
436
13.7        The headquarters of the Met Office at Exeter.
439
13.8        In the National Meteorological Archive, Exeter.
440
13.9        The National Meteorological Library, Exeter.
440
13.10       The instrument development enclosure at the Met Office, Exeter, 2010.
441
13.11       David Rogers.
444
13.12       Mark Hutchinson.
444
13.13       John Raymond Hirst.
445
13.14       How weather forecast accuracy has improved from 1967 to 2009, shown in terms of root mean square barometric pressure error in hectopascals (millibars) over the north-east Atlantic for forecasts 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours ahead, compared with the 72-hour persistence forecast (which has been consistently approximately 11 hPa). The arrow indicates that the forecast for 96 hours ahead is now as accurate as the forecast for 72 hours ahead was in 1999.
452
13.15       Shipping forecast sea areas, 2010.
453
13.16       The Met Office coat of arms, granted in 1991.
454



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