Malcolm Walker tells the story of the UK's national meteorological service – now known simply as the Met Office – from its formation in 1854 with a staff of four and a budget of a few thousand pounds, to its present position as a scientific and technological institution of national and international importance with a staff of nearly 2000 and a turnover of nearly 200 million pounds per year. The Met Office has long been at the forefront of research into atmospheric science and technology and is second to none in providing weather services to the general public and a wide range of customers around the world. The history of the Met Office is therefore largely a history of the development of international weather prediction research in general.
Formed as the Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade with a specifically maritime purpose, the Met Office is now an Executive Agency and Trading Fund responsible to the UK government's Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and serves not only the shipping industry but also many other groups of users. It is at the forefront of pure and applied research in meteorology and related sciences and, moreover, cooperates and interacts with the international meteorological community at administrative, operational and research levels. In addition to being a premier forecasting bureau, it is at the forefront of the modelling of climate change in the modern era.
This volume will be of great interest to meteorologists, atmospheric scientists and historians of science, as well as amateur meteorologists and anyone interested generally in weather prediction.
Malcolm Walker was an academic at Cardiff University from 1967 to 1998, first as a Lecturer, then, from 1983, as Senior Lecturer and, from 1996, as Deputy Head of the Department of Maritime Studies and International Transport. He was Education Resources Manager of the Royal Meteorological Society from 1998 to 2007. He is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and a Member of the American Meteorological Society. He co-authored The Ocean-Atmosphere System (1977), with A.H. Perry. He chaired the Royal Meteorological Society's History Group from 1989 to 1999 and again from 2007 to the present. He was awarded the Group's Jehuda Neumann Memorial Prize in 2001 and the Royal Meteorological Society's Outstanding Service Award in 2007. Since 1980 he has had a strong scholarly interest in the history of ideas in meteorology and physical oceanography and the people behind these ideas. He has published numerous articles and lectured many times on this subject.
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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© Malcolm Walker 2012
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First published 2012
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List of Illustrations
|
ix |
Foreword by Lord Hunt of Chesterton, FRS
|
xv |
Additional Commentary by Dr David N Axford, CEng, FIET, CMet(ret), FRMetS
|
xxi |
Acknowledgements
|
xxiii |
Abbreviations
|
xxv |
1 Seeds Are Sown
|
1 |
Meteorology in Ancient Times
|
2 |
The Dawn of Modern Meteorology
|
3 |
The Origins and Growth of Marine Meteorology
|
6 |
The Emergence of Organized Meteorology
|
8 |
Early Attempts to Model Weather Systems
|
11 |
Progress through Organized Science
|
13 |
Networks of Observers Develop
|
17 |
The Outcome of a Conference
|
19 |
2 Statistics and Storms
|
23 |
A New Government Department Is Born
|
24 |
The Great Desiderata of Meteorology
|
30 |
The Formation of the Scottish Meteorological Society
|
32 |
Progress at the Meteorological Department
|
34 |
Operational Storm Warnings
|
38 |
Forecasts for the General Public
|
44 |
Departmental Growth
|
45 |
Criticism and Controversy
|
47 |
3 Inquiry and Criticism
|
55 |
A New Beginning
|
55 |
The Galton Report
|
60 |
Reactions and Consequences
|
65 |
FitzRoy’s Reputation
|
68 |
FitzRoy’s Successor
|
71 |
Under New Management
|
73 |
4 The Fight over Forecasts
|
78 |
The Campaign in Parliament to Restore Storm Warnings
|
78 |
Efforts in the Press to Restore Storm Warnings
|
83 |
Resumption of Storm Warnings
|
85 |
A New Home for the Meteorological Office
|
88 |
An Important New Publication
|
89 |
Weather Charts for the Public
|
90 |
Owen Rowland – A Notable Amateur Weather Forecaster
|
92 |
Trans-Atlantic Weather Warnings
|
94 |
A Mid-Atlantic Observatory – An Idea before Its Time
|
98 |
Resumption of Weather Forecasts for the Public
|
100 |
5 Squalls and Settled Spells
|
102 |
Changes in the Role of Kew Observatory
|
102 |
An Unsuccessful Proposal from the Astronomer-Royal
|
104 |
London and Scotland Disagree
|
106 |
The Birth of the International Meteorological Organization
|
109 |
Another Change in Management of the Meteorological Office
|
112 |
Disappointment and Discontent
|
116 |
Science at Last
|
119 |
The Value of Weather Forecasts
|
122 |
Advances in Theoretical Meteorology
|
124 |
6 The Emergence of Science
|
126 |
A Scientist with Vision
|
127 |
Further Developments at Kew Observatory
|
133 |
Glimpses of Everyday Life
|
136 |
A Fresh Approach
|
142 |
A New Form of Communication
|
147 |
Shaw’s Early Impact on the Meteorological Office
|
149 |
7 A Decade of Change
|
151 |
Yet Another Inquiry
|
151 |
Yet Another Reorganization
|
155 |
A New Home for the Meteorological Office
|
157 |
Advances in Research and Education
|
164 |
The Budget of the Meteorological Office
|
169 |
A New Meteorological Branch in Scotland
|
173 |
Communications and Standardization
|
177 |
The Continuing Impact of Shaw
|
178 |
8 The Great War
|
180 |
The Emergence of Aeronautics
|
180 |
The Outcome of a Disaster
|
183 |
War Breaks Out
|
185 |
A Professor of Meteorology at South Farnborough
|
188 |
Wartime Field Units of the Meteorological Office
|
191 |
Further Wartime Work of Charles Cave
|
197 |
Serving the Needs of Wartime
|
199 |
Whither the Meteorological Office?
|
202 |
The Prospect of a National Meteorological Institute
|
209 |
The Meteorological Office Transfers to the Air Ministry
|
212 |
Miscellaneous Developments
|
218 |
9 The Inter-War Period
|
223 |
Meteorological Services Are Resumed
|
224 |
Scottish Meteorological Society Difficulties
|
229 |
New Directions for Sir Napier Shaw
|
230 |
A New Director
|
233 |
Under New Management
|
236 |
Steady Progress
|
242 |
The Rise and Fall of Airships
|
249 |
Meteorology from the Air
|
253 |
Meteorological Education and Training
|
256 |
Further Notable Developments
|
261 |
10 The Clouds of War
|
264 |
The Pre-War Years
|
266 |
War Breaks Out
|
271 |
Military Operations during the War
|
276 |
Operational Requirements at Home
|
284 |
Internal Reorganization
|
288 |
Wartime Experiences and Reminiscences
|
290 |
Forecasts and Observations
|
294 |
Peace Returns
|
303 |
11 Aftermath of War to Forecasting by Numbers
|
307 |
Further Reorganization of the Meteorological Office
|
307 |
Revival of the International Meteorological Organization
|
311 |
Research Developments
|
313 |
Developments in Weather Forecasting
|
315 |
Floating Meteorological Observatories
|
321 |
Meteorological Services for the Public
|
325 |
Severe Weather Events
|
328 |
A New Director
|
331 |
The Brabazon Report
|
334 |
Progress at Home and Abroad
|
340 |
The Office’s First Electronic Computer
|
347 |
The Move to Bracknell
|
350 |
12 Global Meteorology
|
354 |
Fahrenheit or Celsius
|
354 |
Weather Forecasting Developments
|
356 |
A New Director-General
|
358 |
Research Developments in the 1960s
|
365 |
New Meteorological Services
|
369 |
International Developments
|
378 |
An Exciting New Era
|
384 |
Automatic Systems Develop
|
387 |
Developments at Reading
|
394 |
End of an Era
|
397 |
13 Winds of Change
|
401 |
A Host of Environmental Concerns
|
403 |
A New Director-General
|
409 |
Progress and Storms
|
415 |
More Independence for the Met Office
|
419 |
Further Important Developments for the Met Office
|
423 |
A New Chief Executive
|
427 |
Further Changes of Direction for the Met Office
|
434 |
Uncertain Times
|
441 |
Controversy Continues
|
447 |
Epilogue
|
451 |
Postscript
|
453 |
Index
|
455 |
2.1 Robert FitzRoy, Meteorological Statist to the Board of Trade, the first Director of the Meteorological Office.
|
25 |
2.2 The first home of the Meteorological Office at 1 and 2 Parliament Street, London, with wind vane and rain gauge on the roof.
|
27 |
2.3 Wind star, from FitzRoy's Weather Book (1863), showing the directions and strengths of the winds which occurred most frequently between latitudes 20°S and 30°S
and longitudes 30°W and 40°W.
|
30 |
2.4 Ship's meteorological register (logbook), April 1857.
|
34 |
2.5 FitzRoy display in the National Meteorological Library, showing barometers and model of HMS Beagle.
|
37 |
2.6 Storm-warning signals, from FitzRoy's Weather Book (1863), showing cones and drum and the night signals.
|
43 |
2.7 The pendule de voyage presented to FitzRoy by the French government in 1864.
|
53 |
3.1 The upper picture, from FitzRoy's Weather Book (1863), shows his analysis of the 1859 Royal Charter storm, with flows of cold air from the north and flows of warm air from the south. The lower picture is a meteorological
satellite image showing cloud patterns over the British Isles at 11:50 GMT on 2 April 2006. The resemblance between the patterns
is striking.
|
70 |
3.2 Robert Henry Scott.
|
71 |
4.1 South cone, St Ann's Head, Pembrokeshire, 17 September 1965.
|
87 |
4.2 The weather chart for 31 March 1875 published in The Times on 1 April 1875. The dotted lines indicate the gradations of barometric pressure. Variations of temperature are marked by
figures, state of the sea and sky by descriptive words, and direction of the wind by arrows – barbed and feathered according
to its force.
|
91 |
5.1 Second-order weather station at The Hollies, Hastings, 12 September 1884.
|
111 |
5.2 Ben Nevis Observatory, 1890.
|
121 |
6.1 William Napier Shaw.
|
128 |
6.2 The Meteorological Office headquarters at 63 Victoria Street, London, in the late nineteenth century, showing the display
of notice-boards on the first-floor balcony and the pianoforte maker's shop on the ground floor.
|
137 |
6.3 Afternoon tea in the Forecast Room of the Meteorological Office at 63 Victoria Street, c. 1904. From left to right: R Sargeant, F Snell, W Hayes.
|
139 |
6.4 W H Dines and companion launch a box kite in Crinan Bay, Scotland, 1902.
|
145 |
7.1 The headquarters of the Meteorological Office at Exhibition Road, London, 1910.
|
163 |
7.2 Ernest Gold.
|
168 |
7.3 Rudolf Gustav Karl Lempfert.
|
168 |
7.4 Meteorological Office annual expenditure in £ from the year ending 31 March 1900 to the year ending 31 March 1939.
|
170 |
7.5 The distinctive KO mark used on instruments tested at Kew Observatory.
|
172 |
8.1 Henry George Lyons.
|
193 |
8.2 Ernest Gold's weather diary, France, 24 December 1916.
|
196 |
8.3 Wartime humour. Meteorological Office Forecast Division Christmas Card, 1916, with staff identified by their initials added
in pencil, including RGKL (Lempfert), JSD (Dines), FJB (Brodie), HH (Harries), RS (Sargeant), WH (Hayes) and ‘Jestico’ (C
F J Jestico).
|
197 |
8.4 Meteorological Office staff numbers, 1900–1939.
|
200 |
8.5 Lewis Fry Richardson.
|
219 |
9.1 George Clarke Simpson.
|
234 |
9.2 Shipping forecast sea areas and coastal stations, 1924.
|
244 |
9.3 Punching Hollerith cards.
|
247 |
9.4 Making an Airmet broadcast in the 1930s.
|
255 |
9.5 Chart in the Daily Weather Report showing fronts, 2 March 1933, 07:00 GMT. Fronts were first shown on charts the previous day. Warm fronts are shown as dashed
lines, cold fronts as lines of open circles, occluded fronts as alternate dashes and open circles.
|
260 |
10.1 Nelson King Johnson.
|
265 |
10.2 Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder. The glass sphere focuses the sun's rays onto a graduated card, thus burning a track on
it.
|
270 |
10.3 Group Captain James Stagg.
|
280 |
10.4 Stagg's diary for Sunday 4 June 1944, in which he said that he did not go to bed on the Saturday night but wrote up notes
for a conference at 3 a.m. He also noted that “it began to appear that there might be a temporary fair interlude Monday night”
and that the assault was “provisionally put in again for 6.30 Tuesday morning”.
|
281 |
10.5 The weather map for 13:00 GMT on D-Day, 6 June 1944. Note that observations were available from Ireland and other neutral
countries and from the Atlantic, Germany, Norway and other parts of occupied Europe.
|
282 |
10.6 Appreciative letter from E G Bilham, 6 June 1944, to staff of the Women's Auxiliary Air Force who provided duplicate charts
for Douglas and Petterssen. Bilham was Assistant Director (Forecasting).
|
283 |
10.7 Meteorological reconnaissance flights, September 1944.
|
301 |
11.1 Meteorological Office staff numbers 1947–2010. The figure in August 1945 was 6760.
|
309 |
11.2 Weather briefing at Dunstable for senior scientists, c. 1946.
|
310 |
11.3 C K M Douglas, the greatest British synoptic weather forecaster of all time, early 1950s.
|
320 |
11.4 C K M Douglas inspecting work in the Central Forecasting Office at Dunstable, late 1940s.
|
321 |
11.5 The teleprinter room at Dunstable.
|
322 |
11.6 Oliver Graham Sutton.
|
333 |
11.7 Meteorological Office turnover in millions of £ from the year ending 31 March 1950 to the year ending 31 March 2010.
|
337 |
11.8 Doppler radar matrix display showing a vertical profile of echoes from precipitation over Worcestershire whilst continuous
rain was falling. The display shows raindrops falling with a speed of between 5 and 8 metres per second below a height of
about 2.5 kilometres and snowflakes falling with a speed of between 1 and 2 metres per second above a narrow band which contained
a mixture of rain drops and melting snowflakes.
|
342 |
11.9 London Weather Centre window display of current charts and other meteorological information, Kingsway, 1959.
|
344 |
11.10 Making a weather observation on the Air Ministry roof, Kingsway, London, 1959.
|
345 |
11.11 Checking a rain-gauge on the Air Ministry roof, Kingsway, London 1959. Weather radar in the background.
|
345 |
11.12 Launch of radiosonde at Lerwick Observatory, 1963.
|
346 |
11.13 Operating the ‘Meteor’ computer at Dunstable.
|
349 |
11.14 The new headquarters of the Meteorological Office at Bracknell, 1962.
|
351 |
11.15 Sir Graham Sutton shows Her Majesty the Queen a component of a Skylark rocket at the Bracknell headquarters of the Meteorological
Office, 25 June 1962.
|
352 |
12.1 Basil John Mason.
|
361 |
12.2 Dr Mason speaking at the Meteorological Office's first-ever press conference, 2 November 1965.
|
361 |
12.3 Computer print-out (‘zebra chart’), 200 mb analysis for much of the northern hemisphere, 5 October 1966, 12:00 GMT.
|
362 |
12.4 The C-130 Hercules aircraft nicknamed ‘Snoopy’, showing its long nose boom and radar pod.
|
368 |
12.5 BBC TV weather presentation by Norman Ellis, early 1960s.
|
376 |
12.6 Plotting weather charts in the Central Forecasting Office at Bracknell, 1965.
|
377 |
12.7 The headquarters of the Meteorological Office at Bracknell after completion of the Richardson Wing.
|
387 |
12.8 Prime Minister Edward Heath opens the Richardson Wing of the Meteorological Office at Bracknell, 6 October 1972, watched by
Dr Mason.
|
388 |
12.9 Servicing a moored meteorological buoy.
|
390 |
12.10 Kew Observatory in the 1960s.
|
398 |
13.1 John Theodore Houghton.
|
411 |
13.2 The Prime Minister, Mrs Margaret Thatcher, inspecting a poster display at the Hadley Centre after she had opened the Centre,
25 May 1990.
|
425 |
13.3 Julian Charles Roland Hunt.
|
428 |
13.4 Professor Hunt presenting a barograph to Captain M Bechley, September 1995, continuing a tradition which began in the days
of FitzRoy of rewarding mariners whose work at sea for the Meteorological Office was exemplary.
|
433 |
13.5 Peter David Ewins.
|
435 |
13.6 Met Office logos.
|
436 |
13.7 The headquarters of the Met Office at Exeter.
|
439 |
13.8 In the National Meteorological Archive, Exeter.
|
440 |
13.9 The National Meteorological Library, Exeter.
|
440 |
13.10 The instrument development enclosure at the Met Office, Exeter, 2010.
|
441 |
13.11 David Rogers.
|
444 |
13.12 Mark Hutchinson.
|
444 |
13.13 John Raymond Hirst.
|
445 |
13.14 How weather forecast accuracy has improved from 1967 to 2009, shown in terms of root mean square barometric pressure error
in hectopascals (millibars) over the north-east Atlantic for forecasts 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours ahead, compared with the 72-hour persistence forecast (which has been consistently approximately
11 hPa). The arrow indicates that the forecast for 96 hours ahead is now as accurate as the forecast for 72 hours ahead was
in 1999.
|
452 |
13.15 Shipping forecast sea areas, 2010.
|
453 |
13.16 The Met Office coat of arms, granted in 1991.
|
454 |