Cambridge University Press
9780521802963 - The Psychology of Risk - by Glynis M. Breakwell
Frontmatter/Prelims
Risk surrounds and envelops us. Without understanding it, we risk everything and without capitalising on it, we gain nothing. This accessible new book from Glynis M. Breakwell comprehensively explores the psychology of risk, examining how individuals think, feel and act, as well as considering the institutional and societal assessments, rhetorics and reactions about risk. Featuring chapters on all the major issues in the psychology of risk including risk assessment, hazard perception, decision-making, risk and crisis management, risk and emotion, risk communication, safety cultures, the social amplification and social representation of risk, and mechanisms for changing risk responses, Breakwell uses illustrations and examples to bring to life the significance of her research findings. She provides an innovative overview of current knowledge on the subject but also suggests that there are many fascinating questions still to be answered.
GLYNIS M. BREAKWELL is Vice Chancellor of the University of Bath. She is a psychologist specialising in leadership, identity processes, risk communication and military cultures, and her research has resulted in her acting as an advisor to a number of government departments including the Department of Health, the Department of Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Defence. Professor Breakwell has published over twenty books and hundreds of journal articles.
Glynis M. Breakwell
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
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Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
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Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521004459
© Glynis M. Breakwell 2007
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2007
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
ISBN 978-0-521-80296-3 hardback
ISBN 978-0-521-00445-9 paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or
accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to
in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
This book is dedicated with love and respect to
my father, Harold Breakwell, whose approach
to risk is unpredictable and inspirational.
| List of boxes | page viii | |
| List of figures | ix | |
| Preface | xi | |
| Acknowledgements | xiii | |
| 1 | A psychological framework for analysing risk | 1 |
| 2 | Hazard perception | 12 |
| 3 | Individual and group differences in risk perception | 44 |
| 4 | Decision-making about risks | 78 |
| 5 | Risk and emotion | 109 |
| 6 | Risk communication | 130 |
| 7 | Errors, accidents and emergencies | 173 |
| 8 | Risk and complex organisations | 196 |
| 9 | Social amplification and social representations of risk | 224 |
| 10 | Changing risk responses | 266 |
| References | 277 | |
| Index | 314 | |
| Box 1.1 Elements in the analytic framework | page 9 |
| Box 2.1 Risk assessment and risk perception | 14 |
| Box 2.2 Risk of violence | 17 |
| Box 2.3 A complex hazard: avian and pandemic flu | 22 |
| Box 2.4 The psychometric paradigm | 27 |
| Box 2.5 Heuristics and biases in judgement under uncertainty | 28 |
| Box 2.6 Risk characteristics | 29 |
| Box 3.1 Assessing the value of quantitative empirical studies | 45 |
| Box 3.2 Personality traits and the Big Five | 49 |
| Box 3.3 Self-efficacy, locus of control and risk perception | 54 |
| Box 4.1 Hazard script: hurricanes | 94 |
| Box 4.2 Mental models of global climate change | 97 |
| Box 5.1 The worried well | 118 |
| Box 6.1 Factors influencing the persuasiveness of a message | 132 |
| Box 6.2 Emergent uncertainty | 149 |
| Box 6.3 Communicating risks to public health | 155 |
| Box 6.4 Hazard headlines | 157 |
| Box 7.1 The Chernobyl errors | 177 |
| Box 8.1 Common lessons of scenario planning for business continuity | 206 |
| Box 8.2 Correlates of low accident rates in industrial facilities | 209 |
| Box 8.3 The case of Sellafield | 211 |
| Box 9.1 Eleven days in August 2006: terrorist plot to bomb aircraft | 227 |
| Box 9.2 The layering method | 238 |
| Fig. 1.1 | A generic framework for social psychological analysis | page 8 |
| Fig. 2.1 | Pipeline risk assessment method: event tree (Reprinted from Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Vol. 4, D. A. Carter, ‘Aspects of risk assessment for hazardous pipeline containing flammable substances’, p. 68 (1991), with permission from Elsevier.) | 20 |
| Fig. 2.2 | Societal risk tolerability (Reprinted from Major Hazard Aspects of the Transport of Dangerous Substances, with permission.) | 25 |
| Fig. 2.3 | Characteristic profiling across hazards | 30 |
| Fig. 2.4 | Distribution of hazards in a two-dimensional space (Reprinted from The Perception of Risk by Paul Slovic, p. 98 (2000), with permission from Earthscan Publications.) | 32 |
| Fig. 2.5 | Factors 1 and 2 of a three-dimensional factor structure (Reprinted from The Perception of Risk by Paul Slovic, p. 142 (2000), with permission from Earthscan Publications.) | 33 |
| Fig. 3.1 | Analysing perception of hazard characteristics | 47 |
| Fig. 4.1 | Prospect theory value function (Reprinted from Econometrica, Vol. 47, D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, ‘Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk’, p. 279 (1979), with permission from The Econometric Society.) | 89 |
| Fig. 4.2 | Stylised mental model of food poisoning (Reproduced with the permission of the Royal Society of Medicine, London.) | 95 |
| Fig. 4.3 | Group polarisation as self-categorisation induced conformity to a polarised norm | 105 |
| Fig. 4.4 | Ingroup and outgroup initial bi-polarisation | 106 |
| Fig. 5.1 | Incidence of the worried well (Reprinted from The Social Amplification of Risk by Nick Pidgeon, Roger E. Kasperson and Paul Slovic, p. 97 (2003), with permission.) | 120 |
| Fig. 8.1 | A risk map | 198 |
| Fig. 8.2 | Risk register | 201 |
| Fig. 8.3 | Managing a meningitis outbreak | 204 |
| Fig. 8.4 | The safety pyramid (Reprinted from Risk Analysis 2, Vol. 3 (3), J. Phimister et al., ‘Near-miss incident management in chemical industry: seven-stage framework’, p. 446 (2003), with permission from Blackwell Publishing.) | 217 |
| Fig. 9.1 | The social amplification of risk framework (Reprinted from The Social Amplification of Risk by Nick Pidgeon, Roger E. Kasperson and Paul Slovic, p. 14 (2003), with permission.) | 226 |
| Fig. 9.2 | Amplification processes | 247 |
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