Cambridge University Press
0521848822 - Predictability of Weather and Climate - Edited by Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn
Table of Contents



Contents




  List of contributors viii
  Preface xiii
Chapter 1   Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice 1
  T. N. Palmer
Chapter 2   Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective 30
  Brian Hoskins
Chapter 3   Predictability – a problem partly solved 40
  Edward N. Lorenz
Chapter 4   The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability 59
  Martin Ehrendorfer
Chapter 5   Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction 99
  Petros J. Ioannou and Brian F. Farrell
Chapter 6   Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation 124
  Thomas M. Hamill
Chapter 7   Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution? 157
  Eugenia Kalnay, Brian Hunt, Edward Ott and Istvan Szunyogh
Chapter 8   Approximating optimal state estimation 181
  Brian F. Farrell and Petros J. Ioannou
Chapter 9   Predictability past, predictability present 217
  Leonard A. Smith
Chapter 10   Predictability of coupled processes 251
  Axel Timmermann and Fei-Fei Jin
Chapter 11   Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability 275
  Duane E. Waliser
Chapter 12   Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review 306
  J. Shukla and J. L. Kinter III
Chapter 13   Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation 342
  Mojib Latif, Holger Pohlmann and Wonsun Park
Chapter 14   On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales 365
  Franco Molteni, Fred Kucharski and Susanna Corti
Chapter 15   Model error in weather and climate forecasting 391
  Myles Allen, David Frame, Jamie Kettleborough and David Stainforth
Chapter 16   Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40 428
  Adrian J. Simmons
Chapter 17   The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System 459
  Roberto Buizza
Chapter 18   Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system 489
  Stefano Tibaldi, Tiziana Paccagnella, Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani and Fabrizio Nerozzi
Chapter 19   Operational seasonal prediction 514
  David L. T. Anderson
Chapter 20   Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach 532
  T. N. Krishnamurti, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Won-Tae Yun, Arun Chakraborty and Lydia Stefanova
Chapter 21   Predictability and targeted observations 561
  Alan Thorpe and Guðrún Nína Petersen
Chapter 22   The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts 584
  Zoltan Toth, Olivier Talagrand and Yuejian Zhu
Chapter 23   Predictability from a forecast provider’s perspective 596
  Ken Mylne
Chapter 24   Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings? 614
  François Lalaurette and Gerald van der Grijn
Chapter 25   Predictability and economic value 628
  David S. Richardson
Chapter 26   A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world 645
  Peter J. Webster, T. Hopson, C. Hoyos, A. Subbiah, H.-R. Chang and R. Grossman
Chapter 27   DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts 674
  Renate Hagedorn, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes and T. N. Palmer
  Index 693
  The colour plates are situated between pages 364 and 365.



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