Cambridge University Press
0521839769 - How the Weak Win Wars - A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict - by Ivan Arreguín-Toft
Index
Abrams, Creighton, General 157, 158, 163n
Adowa, battle of (1896) 112, 112n, 116, 117n, 118, 119
Afghan war (1979–89) 14, 19, 22
casualties 180, 181–182, 188, 188n, 193n
ceasefire 183
(explanations of) outcome 6n, 187, 188–189, 226
international response 191–192, 192n
mujahideen aims/interests 174–175, 190, 196, 213
mujahideen (imported) resources 178n, 186, 193–194, 198, 215n, 215–216
progress of hostilities 175–181, 183–184, 202
Soviet aims/interests 172n, 172–173, 173n, 189–190, 195–196, 213, 214n
Soviet resources, 172n, 178–179, 183, 196
Soviet strategy/tactics 179, 180n, 180–183, 184–187, 189–190, 198, 221
theoretial analysis 189–199, 213–216, 214n, 217–219
Afghanistan
ethnography 170
geography 170, 177, 185
political history 170–172, 173–174
post-1989 developments 175n, 188, 190, 199, 216
(reductions in) population 182
US invasion (2001) 19–20, 166, 204–205
air attack 31n, 32n, 40–41, 161
counter-measures 186–187, 194
effectiveness 40n, 136–137
Akhulgo, battle of 59
Alexander I, tsar 52
Alexander II, tsar 54, 64, 66, 206n
Alfieri, Dino 133
Algeria see under France
Ali, Muhammad 23
Allenby, General 96n
Aloisi, Pompeo, Baron 115, 116n
Amin, Hafizullah 171–172, 176
Andreski, Stanislas 9n
Aosta, Duke of 127n, 127–128, 129–130, 137, 138
Ap Bac, battle of (1963) 149
Apocalypse Now (Coppola, 1979) 160–161
Arab–Israeli conflicts 224
Ardagh, Sir John, Maj.-Gen. 80
Aregai, Abebe 128, 129, 142, 210
arms diffusion theory 10–13, 11n, 42, 202
applicability to case studies 193–194, 197, 212, 214–215
inapplicability/irrelevance to case studies 67–68, 70, 101–102, 106, 136–137, 141, 162–163, 206, 209
artillery, use of 67–68, 70, 101–102
Asian countries, common strategic preferences 37
Asquith, H. H., prime minister 87–88
asymmetric conflicts 2–3
defined 43
duration 27, 28–29, 35, 46, 164, 202, 205, 207–208, 213
frequency 20n, 200–201
initiation 30n
theoretical analyses 5, 6n, 20, 24–25 (see also arms diffusion; interest asymmetry; strategic interaction)
unexpected outcomes 21, 157–158 (see also weaker side, victory of)
Athens 2
Auraris, Dejaz 128n
authoritarian regimes
conduct of hostilities 66–67
control of information 7, 8–9, 28, 135–136, 160, 214
decline in numbers 5, 8
demands on soldiery 7–8, 9
local competition 211–212
military advantages 7–8, 27–28, 42, 68n, 196, 201–202, 209, 214n, 217–219
military disadvantages 8–10, 140, 214
wartime relaxation 8
Baddeley, John F. 52–53, 67
Baden-Powell, Lord 86
Badoglio, General 121, 122–123, 122–123n
bandwagoning 58n
Bao Dai 147
Baratieri, Oreste, General 111–112
barbarism
aims 34
counterproductivity 17n, 58, 63, 92, 108, 126, 127n, 197–198, 221, 225
defined 31–32, 43
drawbacks 9–10, 35–36, 41–42n, 213, 214n, 215–216 (see also counterproductivity above)
effect on participants 9n
employment in case studies 53, 70, 92–94, 107, 143, 153–154, 157, 175, 180–183
as end in itself 36n
international response 222
military effectiveness 27–28n, 35n, 194–195
public reactions 100, 217–219 (see also concentration camps; public opinion)
reluctance to use 15–16
use by authoritarian regimes 16, 191, 196
use by democracies 16 see also air attack; chemical weapons; concentration camps; hospitals, bombing of; indirect attacking strategy; mines; mustard gas
Bariatinsky, Prince 57, 62, 64, 66, 68
Beit, Alfred 76, 79n
Belgium, German invasion (1914) 224
“Black Week” (1899) 86–87
Blanch, Lesley 63
Blaskowitz, Johannes 9–10
blockhouse strategy 96, 184n, 184–185
Blood River, battle of (1838) 73
Boer War see South African War
bombing see air attack
Botha, Louis 86, 91–92, 93, 105
bravery, role in battle 49
Brezhnev, Leonid 171, 190, 191–192
Brezhnev Doctrine 172, 172n, 173
Broderick, Lord 91–92n
Bui Tin 161
Buller, Sir Redvers (Lord), General 86, 89–90
Bullock, Colonel 103n
Bush, George (sr.), President 164
Calley, William, Lt. 9n
Cape Town 72–73, 99
Caputo, Philip 144
Castellano, Professor 124n
Castro, Fidel 58n
casualties 8, 10
Catherine the Great 51, 69
Caucasus
geography 49–51, 68
political organization 55 (see also Muridism)
population 57
Russian conquest of see Murid Wars
Cavallero, General 128, 128n
cavalry, use of 85n
Chamberlain, Joseph 76, 77, 99–100
Chechnia
deforestation 50, 50n, 61, 62, 63, 68
geography 50
Russian attacks on 53, 58, 166, 214n
chemical weapons 31n, 182–183, 183n, 210n see also mustard gas
Churchill, Winston 129
Ciano, Galeazzo 129–130
civilians
casualty figures 162–163n
execution 31n
targeting 8, 25 see also barbarism; concentration camps
clemency see conciliation
Cohen, Eliot 11, 12, 166, 226
COIN (counterinsurgency) campaigns/strategies 31–32, 32n, 41, 102–103, 107, 155–157, 166–167, 191, 215, 226
Cold War 6–7n, 11–12
collateral damage 181–183
colonialism
justifications 103n, 116–117, 118n
struggles against 4n, 37n, 41–42n, 146–148
commando units, use of 83, 96–97
concentration camps 31n, 32n, 91, 93–94, 102–103
conditions 95n
death rates 94n, 103
justification 91–92n
public reaction to 94–96, 106, 222
conciliation 30n, 62–63, 70–71, 138, 210, 211
Conrad, Joseph 72
Constantine, Grand Duke (brother of Alexander I) 53–54
conventional attack 34
conventional responses 38, 102, 137, 154–155, 203–204
defined 30–31, 43
indirect responses 38–39, 64, 102, 138, 175, 194, 204
predicted outcomes 38, 39
conventional defense 32, 34, 43, 221 see also under conventional attack; indirect attacking strategies
Craft, Cassady 11n
Crimean War 66–67
Cronje, General 88–89
Czechoslovakia
German invasion 128
Soviet invasion 191
Daghestan
geography 50
leadership 55
Russian attacks on 53
Da’ud Khan, Sardar Mohammed 170–171, 188
De Bono, General 119, 120–121, 122, 122–123n
De La Rey, Koos, General 92, 93, 97, 105
De Wet, Christiaan, General 88–89, 90–91, 92–93, 97, 105
Debra Libanos monastery, massacre at 127
deforestation, as military tactic see Chechnya
Del Boca, Angelo 110, 114
democracy/ies
authoritarian measures 8
military effectiveness 15–18, 28, 166, 201–202, 217–219, 225n
strategic choices 99–101, 161–162, 207–208, 211–212
Diem, Ngo Dinh 148–149, 149–150, 151, 212
Dien Bien Phu, battle of 144, 167n
divine will (victory as expression of) 26–27
domino theory 82n, 164
Donohue, Laura K. 225n
Douhet, Gulliano 40
Downes, Alexander 35n
Duffy Toft, Monica 78n
Dundonald, Earl, Brig.-Gen. 107
economic sanctions 40, 40n
Eden, Anthony 135
Egypt 130
Eisenhower, Dwight D. 170
Eritrea 111, 113–114, 119n, 119–120, 120n
Ethiopia
geography 110
political system 110–111, 118 see also Italo-Ethiopian War
European countries, common strategic preferences 37
expanding bullets, prohibition of 103n
fait accompli, victory as 26, 116n
Falkland Islands 164
Fawcett, Millicent 95n
Flandin, Pierre-Etienne 135
foreign support (for weaker side) 45–46, 186, 193
dependence on 195
pitfalls 195
France
German invasion (1940) 224
involvement in Algeria 42n, 168, 184n, 197n, 225
involvement in Vietnam 144, 146n, 146–148, 148n, 184n
military strategies 16, 37n
relations with Italy 112–113, 116–117
franchise, as point of dispute 75n
Franco-Prussian War 39n, 91
Freedman, Lawrence 200
Freitag, General 57, 60, 61
Gammer, Moshe 57n, 61, 67
Gandhi, Mahatma 41n
Geneva Convention see laws of war
genocide 222n
geography, influence on combat strategies 12n, 178
Georgia 69
Gladstone, W. E., prime minister 74–75
gold/gems, discovery of 75, 79n
Goldwater, Barry, Senator 151
Gorbachev, Mikhail 186, 187, 190, 192–193, 215
Grabbé, General 57
grand strategy, defined 29–30
Graziani, General 122–123, 122–123n, 126–127, 128, 130–131, 137
Great Trek 73
Grenada 26
Grozny, construction of 53
guerrilla warfare 12n, 14–15n, 16, 25n, 37, 132–133
aims 34, 35n
conditions (un)favorable to 41, 62n, 105, 197
defined 32–33, 43
employment in case studies 57, 59–61, 68, 70–71, 88–89, 90–92, 93, 102, 106–107, 121–122, 138, 155–156, 175
evolution into direct strategy 32n
origins 17n
rejection 39n, 125, 131, 166
Guevara, Che 58n, 203n
Gugsa, General 120
Hague Convention (1899/1907) 92n, 103n
Haile Selassie, Emperor 109, 109–110, 113n, 113–114, 118, 119, 120, 121–122, 125–126, 130, 130n, 131, 132–133, 209, 220
Halifax, Lord 134–135
Hamilton, Donald 166
Hamzad Beg 55, 64
Hannibal 49
Hely-Hutchinson, Sir Walter 83
Himmler, Heinrich 9–10
Hitler, Adolf 49
Ho Chi Minh 146–147, 149
Hoare, Sir Samuel 116–117n
Hobhouse, Emily 94–95, 95n, 100, 219
Hobson, J. A. 79n
honor, role in military ethos 49, 118
hospitals, bombing of 124, 134
Hungary, Soviet invasion of 191, 202
Hussein, Saddam 50n
incompetence, role in strong-actor setbacks 68, 70, 131, 137, 138–140, 210–211, 220
India, gaining of independence 170
indirect attacking strategies
direct responses 39–41, 154, 204
indirect responses 33–34n, 41, 137, 203–204
predicted outcomes 40–41, 42
by weaker side 40n see also air attack; barbarism; civilians, targeting of; economic sanctions
indirect defensive strategies 27–28, 221–222, 224 see also conventional attack; guerilla warfare; indirect attacking strategies
interest asymmetry, theory of 13–14, 25, 42–43, 201
applicability to case studies 66, 69
inapplicability to case studies 104, 159, 190, 196, 213–214, 217–219
weaknesses 14–15
international relations theory (conventional approaches) 2, 2n, 4–5, 23–24, 221, 223, 223n
internment 25
Iraq, conflicts involving 19, 20, 162, 202 see also Kuwait
Israel 225, 227
Italo-Ethiopian Treaty of Amity, Conciliation and Arbitration (1928) 113–114
Italo-Ethiopian War (1935–40) 22, 28, 198n
casualties 125n
conclusion 133n
Ethiopian aims/interests 118, 132–133
Ethiopian resources 120, 136, 141
Ethiopian strategy/tactics 121–122, 125
historical background 111–116
Italian aims/interests 116–118, 119, 132, 140
Italian malpractice (see hospitals; laws of war; mustard gas)
Italian strategy/tactics 123–125, 126–129, 140–141
progress of hostilities 109–110, 119–129
theoretical analysis 132–143, 209–211, 219
Italy
in World War II 129–131 see also Italo-Ethiopian War
Jahandad, Commander 176
Jameson Raid 76, 101
Japan, military initiatives 52, 147, 223–224 see also Russo-Japanese War
Johnson, Lyndon B., president 29n, 150–152, 153
Joubert, General 85
Kakar, Hassan 169, 174, 176, 181
Karmal, Babrak 171, 172, 173, 176, 177, 186, 189
Karnow, Stanley 146
Kekevich, General 86
Kennedy, John F., president 150–151
Khazi Muhammad 55, 58, 64
Kimberley, siege of (1899–1900) 86, 88
Kitchener, Lord 86, 88, 89, 93–94, 96–97, 98, 103n, 207–208n
Kock, General 84–85, 85n
Korean War (1950–3) 11–12, 45n, 220
Kosovo 19, 33–34n, 40n, 41n, 198n
Krepinovich, Andrew 166
Kruger, Paul, president 74–75, 76, 77–78, 80–81, 84n, 93, 101
Kuwait, Iraqi invasion/expulsion 19, 49, 164
Labouchère, Henry 88n
Ladysmith, siege of (1899–1900) 85n, 85–86, 88
Lansdowne, H. C. K. Petty-Fitzmaurice, marquess of 79
Lawrence, T. E. 23, 130, 185
laws of war, violations of 31n, 103n, 103–104, 160–161, 176
alleged 124n
attempts at concealment/justification 124, 124n, 127, 133–136 see also chemical weapons; hospitals, bombing of; mustard gas
League of Nations 113, 114, 115–116, 118, 132–133, 134–135
Lloyd George, David, PM 95
Mack, Andrew J. R. 5–7, 13, 14–15n, 16, 17–18, 24, 25n, 27, 28–29, 161, 165, 201, 202, 202n
Mafeking, siege of (1899–1900) 86, 88
Magsaysay, Ramon 167
Majuba Hill, battle of (1881) 75
Malayan Emergency (1948) 17, 202n, 226
Manchuria see Japan
Mao Tse-tung 12n, 32n, 33, 34, 37, 41n, 223–224
Massu, General 42n, 168
Massud, Ahmad Shah 179, 180, 181, 183–184, 185, 188, 194–195
McNamara, Robert S. 29n, 153
Mearsheimer, John 3n
Menelik II, emperor of Ethiopia 111–112, 118
Merom, Gil 15, 16–18, 29, 67, 161–162, 166, 201–202, 202n, 206n, 207–208n, 225n, 226–227
Methuen, Lord 86
Meyer, Lucas 83–84
Milner, Alfred 76–77, 77n, 80, 83n, 98, 99–100
Milosevic, Slobodan 40n
mines, use of 182
Mitchell, William 40
Molotov, Vyacheslav 148
motivation (levels of) 24
Movchan, Mickola 169
mujahideen see Afghan war; foreign support
Murid War (1820–49) 22
cost 49
historical background 51–54
outcome 64, 206n
progress of hostilities 57
Russian aims/interests 65–66
Russian military strategy 50–51, 53, 58–59, 63–64
theoretical analysis 64–71, 205–207, 206n, 219–220
Muridism 55, 58, 224
military organization 56, 70
religious dogma 56
Mussolini, Benito 112n, 113–114, 116n, 116–118, 117n, 120–121, 122, 125n, 126, 127, 128, 129, 132, 133, 135–136, 137, 140–141, 172n
mustard gas, use of 122–125, 122–123n, 125–126, 131–132, 133–136, 137
attempts at concealment/justification see under laws of war, violations of
effects on victims 123–124
My Lai massacre 9n, 160–161
Najibullah, Mohammed 186, 188, 188n, 190
Napoleonic wars 17n, 49, 52, 60n
nationalism 5, 6–7n, 37n, 62n, 195, 223–224
NATO, military activities 19, 31n
nature-of-actor theory see authoritarian regimes; democracies
naval warfare, strategies 50n
Navarre, Henri, General 167n
Nazis, treatment of occupied territories 9–10, 35–36, 36n
Nguyen Co Thach 157n
Nguyen Khanh, General 150
Nicholas I, Tsar 53–54, 59, 64, 66, 70
noncombatants, targeting of 31–32 see also civilians
Northern Ireland 225n
Orange Free State 73–74, 88n, 98
Pakenham, Thomas 79, 82, 85–86, 87–88, 98
Pakistan 170 see also Afghan War: mujahideen resources
Paktia offensive (1980) 178–179
Panjsher offensives (1980–5) 179–181, 183–184
Pape, Robert 40, 40n, 152–153n
Paskyevitch, General 57–58, 59, 63, 68
Patriot Act (US 2002) 8
Paul, T. V. 6n
Paul I, Tsar 51–52
Persia, conflicts with Russia 51–52, 66
Peter the Great 51, 69
Philippines 202n, 226
Phoenix program 156–157, 157n
Poland, German occupation of 9–10
political vulnerability, impact on military strategy 13–14, 24, 25, 42–43
absence of 66, 67, 69–70, 141, 206, 214
in Soviet Union 193
in UK 100, 105–106, 207–208
in United States 159, 161–162, 165, 213
in Vietnam 211–212
Posen, Barry 12–13
posts, fortified see blockhouse strategy
power
defined 2n, 3n, 223, 223n, 224
relationship with conflict outcomes 2–3, 63, 65, 69, 71, 140 see also interest asymmetry
precedent, setting of (as factor in determining strategy) 78–79, 116–117n, 173n, 189n see also domino theory
prisoners of war
inability to hold 97
mistreatment 8
refusal to take 183
public opinion, impact on military strategy 78, 87, 94–96, 99–101, 105–106, 161–162, 209n
racial issues, role in South African war 77n
Ras Imru, General 123, 126
Ras Kassa, General 122
Ras Mulugetta, General 122
Ras Seyum, General 122
Rhodes, Cecil 74, 76, 76n, 79n, 86, 100
Rhodes, Richard 9–10
Ridgeway, Matthew, General 220
Roberts, Lord 86, 88, 88n, 89, 90, 90n, 92–93, 94, 100, 107
Roghe, Bruno 133
Rolling Thunder, Operation (1965–68) 152–153n, 154n, 156–157
Russia
activities post-1992 166
political organization 54–55, 65, 66–67
population 57 see also Murid War; Soviet Union
Russo-Japanese War (1905) 223
Rwanda 227
Sbacchi, Alberto 141n
Schwarzkopf, Norman 49
September 11 attacks 227
Shamil (Murid leader) 49–50, 52, 54, 55–56, 58–61, 60n, 64, 70, 206
downfall 62–63, 67, 68
Shepstone, Sir Theophilus 74
Sherman, William, General 91
Smith, Iain R. 79, 81
Smuts, Jan 78, 82, 91, 92, 93, 97, 105
social structure, relationship with military effectiveness 6–7n see also democracies; public opinion
“socialization” (of strategy) 36–37, 205
Sokolov, Marshal 177
Sorley, Lewis 163n
South African War 20, 22, 43–44n, 44n, 81–82
Boer aims/interests 80n, 80–81, 99, 104
Boer strategy/tactics 33n, 82, 84–85, 90–92, 107n
British aims/interests 76–80, 99, 207
British strategy/tactics 32n, 87–88, 89, 92–94, 184n, 185, 220, 222
casualties 98 (see also under concentration camps)
historical background 72–76
outcome 97–98, 105, 108
pre-war negotiations 80–81
progress of hostilities 82–94, 96–97
theoretical analysis 98–108, 207–208, 207–208n, 217
uniforms 103n
South Vietnam, political regime 148–150
Soviet Union 5, 8
dissolution 188
involvement in Afghanistan (pre-1979) 171–172
military strategies/traditions 37, 38, 178n, 191, 192–193, 193n
political system 190–193 see also Cold War
Sparta 2
Stalin, Joseph 8
Steer, George 130–131, 131n
Steyn, Marthinus, President 76, 80–81, 82, 93, 101, 107n
Stinger missiles 186–187, 194
Strategic Hamlets program 156
strategic interaction thesis 6–7, 18, 21, 24–25, 27, 29, 44–45n, 222–223, 224–227
application to case studies 63–64, 65, 68, 70–71, 102–104, 106, 137–143, 163–166, 194–195, 197–199, 206–207, 208, 209–211, 212–213, 215–216
central hypotheses 42, 46–47, 203–204, 217–219
empirical evaluation 43–47, 204, 216–219
exceptions 112n
limitations 223–224
strategy/ies
choice of 29n, 37–38, 200, 203, 203n, 209n, 221–222
counterstrategies 34–35
defined 29, 29n
limited aims 32n, 159
switches 36, 36n, 43–44n, 44n, 70, 102, 106–107, 212
types 30, 34–35, 203, 203n see also conventional attack; conventional defense; guerrilla warfare; indirect attacking strategies; strategic interaction thesis
Suez Canal 99
Sun Tzu 48
survival, as reason for going to war 25, 164–165
Suvorov, Alexander 60, 219
Sweden, war with Russia 51
Symons, Sir Penn 79, 83–84
tactics, defined 29–30
Tajikistan 189n
Talana Hill, battle of (1899) 83–84
Tamarov, Vladislav 193n
Taraki, Muhammad 171–172
Tarzi, Mahmud Beg 192
technology (military) 4n, 5, 187n
relationship with combat effectiveness 11–13, 67–68, 217
spread of 11, 12n see also arms diffusion
Tembian, battle of 122
terrorism 32n
countermeasures 225, 226n
war on 21, 38
Tet Offensive (1968) 157, 163, 163n, 195
Thatcher, Margaret, PM 164
Thucydides 2
time, significance to military objectives 106, 164–165 see also asymmetric conflicts: duration
Tonkin Gulf incident (1964) 151n
Tran Hung Doo 146
Transvaal 73, 74–75, 98
Trezzani, General 138n
Turtledove, Harry 41n
Umberto, King of Italy 111–112
underestimation of opposition
by Russia/Soviet Union 69n, 191
by UK 79, 81, 87, 89–90, 100
United Kingdom
involvement in Ethiopia 119n, 129–131, 130n, 142, 210
military history/limitations 37n, 79n, 85–86, 101–102
parliamentary proceedings 91–92n, 95–96, 116–117n
relations with Italy 112–113 116–117 see also Malayan Emergency; South African War
United States
domestic policy / legislation 8, 25
foreign policy 19–21, 26, 192
military effectiveness 12–13
military history / strategies 37, 38, 212
military strategy, ideal / future 225–227 see also Afghanistan; Iraq; Korean war; Kuwait; Vietnam war; World War II
unpreparedness, role in strong-actor setbacks 219n, 219–221 see also United Kingdom: military history
Urban, Mark L. 181, 187, 197
Veliaminov, General 48, 54
Vietnam
Democratic Republic of (DRV) 147, 148–149, 150, 157, 158, 159–161
economy 145
geography 145
political history 145–148, 146n see also France; Vietnam War
Vietnam war (1965–73) 22, 44n, 45n, 178n
civilian casualties 158n
(explanations of) outcome 6n, 14, 157, 158n, 226
progress of hostilities 152–157, 167–168, 202
theoretical analysis 43–44n, 157–168, 211–213
US aims / interests 150–152, 151n, 159, 214n
US engagement in 14, 144–145, 151–152
US strategy / tactics 16, 29n, 40–41n, 50n, 155–157, 164, 167–168, 189, 198n, 220–221
Vietnamese aims / interests 158
Vietnamese resources 162–163, 166
Vietnamese strategy / tactics 154–155, 160–161
Vittorio Emmanuele II of Italy 113
Voronzov, Count 57, 59–61, 60n, 62–63, 66, 68
Wal Wal, Ethiopia 114–116
Waltz, Kenneth 18, 36–37
Walzer, Michael 168
Watson, Bruce 9n
Watson, C. Dale 17n
weaker side, victory of
frequency 3–4, 43–45
historical trends 4n, 4–5, 36, 46, 47n, 205
reasons 6–7n, 16–17n
Westmoreland, William 167n
White, Sir George, General 83, 84–86
Wilson, Woodrow, President 146–147
Wingate, Orde, Major 142
World War I 210n, 219n
World War II
aftermath 10–11, 12, 17, 18, 37, 41–42n
Allied strategies 25, 32n, 40–41n
commencement 128
duration 164
impact on war on Ethiopia 129, 131, 142, 210
motives for engagement 8, 25
Yermolov, Mikhail 50n, 52–54, 63–64, 68
Yevdomikov, General 57
Yohannes IV, emperor of Ethiopia 111
Yugoslavia 36n
Zahir Shah, King 171
Zaitsev, Mikhail 186, 187
Zhou Enlai 148
Zulus, conflicts involving 74
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